Technical definition of a mania

Here are some interesting quotes from View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle, by Robert Prechter (1996-2001), in an essay called "Calling Too Many Tops".

"A market is in a mania when it (1) ignores its historical range of valuation; (2) decelerates without reversing, then re-accelerates, continually; (3) surpasses long-standing resistance lines; (4) creates no reactions, only pauses; and (5) continues relentlessly in a direction fully anticipated by the majority, in a blowoff."

Does this definition apply to the housing market? We saw some dips in sales late in 2004, but the market generally picked up steam again in 2005. The lifestyles of some homeowners hang on the expectation of annual double-digit gains in the values of their homes, instead of a more plod-along gain of 2-4% annually, keeping pace with inflation. If there have been any pauses in the housing market, perhaps they were to digest the latest wiggle in interest rates, but these pauses have been quite brief. I don't think support and resistance lines apply to housing data, so I'll skip that characteristic.

In this essay Bob Prechter goes on to describe how commodity markets behave differently from stock markets, namely, that stock market manias are often driven by ebullience, and tend to deccelerate and produce some rounding in the top of its chart pattern, whereas commodity bull markets are driven by fear (of shortage, of inflation), and often end at extreme points. He argues that recent (late 90's stock markets) came to be driven partly by fear, the emotion that drives commodity markets. Fear of our financial future, which certainly doesn't look healthy in the US, with a huge deficit, pensions vaporizing, social security bankrupt, can cause people to feel desperate in the stock market.

Has the housing market become commoditized? Are people really buying homes to experience the joy of owning a home? Or are they buying a home because they desperately fear being priced out? Are we going to see a gradual decceleration more characteristic of an ebullient market, or are we going to see a sharp reversal more characteristic of a fear-driven market?